excerpts from "Nine Crazy Ideas in Science" by Robert Ehrlich

From: Ehrlich, Robert. 2001. Nine Crazy Ideas in Science: A Few Might Even Be True. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press.219 - ... my ratings for the nine ideas discussed in this book. I've used a subjective rating scheme that goes like this: Zero cuckoos means "why not?" One cuckoo means "probably true, but who knows?" Two cuckoos means "very likely not true." Three cuckoos means "almost certainly not true." And four cuckoos means "certainly false."Crazy Idea Rating--------------------------------------------------------More guns means less crime 3 cuckoosAIDS is not caused by HIV 3 cuckoosSun exposure is beneficial 0 cuckoosLow doses of nuclear radiation are beneficial 1 cuckooThe solar system has two suns 2 cuckoosOil, coal, and gas have abiogenic origins 0 cuckoosTime travel is possible 2 cuckoosFaster-than-light particles exist 0 cuckoosThere was no big bang 3 cuckoos122 - Thomas Gold, a well-respected scientist in his own right ... a retired professor of astronomy from Cornell University, has a track record of coming up with weird ideas, some of which were shown to be correct after being initially rejected by the experts in a field. One of Gold's weird ideas (attacked or ignored by most geologists) is that hydrocarbons are not the fossil fuels we believe them to be, but were part of the original composition of the planet, and that they are present in the deep crust and mantle of the Earth in far greater abundance than geologists believe ... If Gold is right, the practical stakes are enormous, since it would mean that fears of an oil or gas shortage could be put off to the distant future. It would also mean that deep sources of natural gas and oil could be found at far more location around the globe than those found to date.What is the nature of the evidence that convinced most geologists of the biogenic origin of petroleum? First, petroleum is almost always found to contain certain groups of molecules that are only produced in the breakdown of living matter. Second, petroleum frequently exhibits "optical activity," meaning that polarized light passing through it has its plane of polarization rotated. This observation can be understood in terms of the kinds of molecules found in petroleum, which often come in mirror-image, right- and left-handed varieties, just like right- and left-handed screws.124 - The phenomenon f optical activity shows that petroleum contains unequal numbers of right- or left-handed molecules. Here again we have an indicator of the effects of life, since living organisms have evolved to eat substance such as right-handed sugar (dextrose) but not its left-handed mirror image (levitose). A third indicator of the biogenic origin of petroleum is the predominance of molecules having an odd number of carbon atoms--another sign of processes involving living systems.Why Reopen the Debate?Gold points out that each of the preceding pieces of evidence for a biogenic origin of petroleum has a plausible alternative explanation in the light of new discoveries. Finding biological traces in petroleum need not point to a biogenic origin, but could equally well be explained based on a biological contamination of a hydrocarbon fluid coming up from great depth.125 - Another new piece of information that warrants reopening the question of the origin of hydrocarbons involves theories about the formation of the Earth. At one time it was believe that the Earth was molten shortly after its formation. Given an initially molten Earth, any hydrocarbons present when the Earth was formed would be destroyed before the Earth solidified ...Current theories about the Earth's formation involve collisions of cold chunks of material yielding an Earth that was not molten throughout. Much of the Earth's mantle is quite hot, but not molten, and this fact has also been offered as a reason that hydrocarbons could not originate from great depths. But these objections fail to consider the stabilizing effects of high pressure, which would prevent oxidation of hydrocarbons if they originated from depths of up to 330 kilometers.126 - A third reason for reopening the debate about the origin of hydrocarbons is that large amounts have been found throughout the solar system on every planet but Venus, Mars, and Mercury. They are also found on many planetary moons. Methane has been found most frequently, but ethane, other hydrocarbon gases, and tar have also been observed. The absence of hydrocarbons on Mars and mercury is due to the lack of a sufficiently dense protective atmosphere, and no information exists about surface hydrocarbons on Venus because of its dense, opaque atmosphere. Hydrocarbons have also been found in solid and gaseous form on a number of comets and asteroids. They have even been found in interstellar space.127 through 140 [page breaks not indicated here -- JH] -Problems with the Biogenic Theory of Oil and Gas1. Crude oil has the wrong chemical composition.2. Sediments often lack fossils.3. Deep petroleum lacks biological traces.4. Oil from each areas has a chemical signature.5. Oil and gas are often found in long linear or arc-shaped regions.6. Hydrocarbons are found at all depths.7. Methane is found in biologically improbable places.8. Surface soils above gas fields have a very high methane content.9.Helium is always found in association with methane.10. Rocks at great depths can contain open pores in isolated domains.11. Petroleum reservoirs refill spontaneously.12. Diamonds exist.13. The Earth's surface layers are very rich in carbon.14. Carbon isotope fractionation in methane varies with depth.15. Carbon isotope fractionation in marine carbonates is constant.144 - According to Gold's theory, nonsedimentary rocks (largely avoided by petroleum geologists) should be just as promising a place to drill for oil as sedimentary rocks, provided they have sufficient porosity ...If Gold is right, the stakes for humanity are enormous, which makes it all the more important to examine his hypothesis with an open mind, unburdened by long-held beliefs whose basis does not rely on fundamental principles. Currently, the world relies on the so-called fossil fuels for a major portion of its energy. If humanity is to have along-term future, eventually we will need to switch to renewable options. Abundant sources of coal, oil, and gas would make that transition much easier. It would also reduce the chances of global conflict that might arise from uneven access to energy supplies. On the other hand, superabundant supplies of coal, oil, and gas would be a mixed blessing. While the145 - extent of climate change resulting from the burning of these fuels for another century might be tolerable (or possibly even beneficial), their indefinite long-term use is bound to lead to problems.You might imagine that, given the financial stakes involved, some oil companies would have taken advantage of Gold's theory (assuming he were right), and their lack of interest, therefore, would seem to argue against the correctness of his theory. But it is dangerous to make arguments based on the motivations of oil company executives. One could argue, for example, that it is in the interest of the oil companies to keep oil prices high by promoting an image of scarcity, and that currently they would have little interest in finding that oil is far more plentiful than had been thought.My rating for the idea that coal, oil, and gas do not have a biogenic origin, and were part of the Earth's original composition, is zero cuckoos.